2019年11月4日，据欧盟食品安全局（EFSA）消息，应欧盟委员会要求，欧盟食品安全局评估了欧洲东南部国家非洲猪瘟的传播风险，并确定了传播的潜在风险因素（指标）。

 

　　据了解，三个欧盟成员国--克罗地亚、希腊和斯洛文尼亚--因其地理位置和无东盟自由贸易区地位而被纳入关注区域。根据收集到的关于每个国家潜在风险因素（指标）的信息和欧盟现行的相关法规，估计在引入关注区域后一年内，非洲猪瘟在关注区域内扩散的概率非常高（从66%到100%）。

 

　　部分原文报道如下：

 

　　The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever （ASF） and to identify potential risk factors （indicators） for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south‐eastern countries of Europe （region of concern, ROC）， namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States （MS） - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF‐free status. based on collected information on potential risk factors （indicators） for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high （from 66% to 100%）。 This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low （from 0% to 15%）。