近日，华中农业大学陈轩教授食物经济与管理团队发表了其在水产养殖户参与非农就业的决策机理方面的研究成果，揭示了水产养殖户选择参与非农就业的决策机理。
近年来，全球水产品市场发展非常快，但水产养殖业仍然面临着诸多风险，例如气候、环境和市场波动等。因此，相当数量的水产养殖户积极寻求其他相对稳定的收入来源，例如额外参与一些非农产业的工作。该团队以新英格兰地区的生蚝养殖户为例，调查了该目标样本的非农就业选择，评估了影响此类选择的决定性因素。
研究中，科研人员在计量方法上使用了一系列零膨胀计数模型，在经济模型构建上额外引入劳动需求侧变量，仔细评估了专业社交网络的作用。研究结果发现农业劳动市场供给侧与需求侧的一系列因素，包括年龄、养殖经验、教育、性别、人口密度、降水甚至水温都会影响生蚝养殖户的额外非农就业选择。一个特别有趣的结果是，与现有文献相反，研究发现了更紧密的职业社交网络会降低非农就业的倾向，这反映出水产养殖行业与传统陆地农业相比，有着其独特性。
这个研究展示了如何在水产养殖这一快速增长的重要行业中运用数量经济方法研究农户非农就业的决策机制，填补了非农就业研究在水产经济文献中的理论空白，可以深入理解水产养殖户参与非农就业的动机和决策机制，为水产养殖业的健康发展提供决策参考。
【英文摘要】
Global aquaculture markets have experienced a great deal of recent success. However, growers are still highly susceptible to risks caused by seasonality, interannual variability in earnings, and environmental factors. As a result, we see growers turning to alternative sources of income, and participating in off‐farm labor. We utilize a series of zero‐inflated count models to examine the relationship between an aquaculture grower's off‐farm labor decision and relevant explanatory variables including demand‐side potency, which is often omitted in the literature. We also look to identify and analyze the importance of professional social networks among growers as a stabilizing mechanism and a way to mitigate risk to growers. This study expands upon an economic model that has traditionally been used for analyzing off‐farm labor choices within an agricultural context and applies it to an increasingly important industry, aquaculture.
论文链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cjag.12264
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